Luck directory

Event luck2008–2025Timing

Buying a house in 2009

The same $200,000 purchase, different cities, $362,000 to $728,000 of later equity.

$362k–$728klater equity on the same $200,000 purchase, by city

What they did

A buyer had a deposit, qualifying income, and the willingness to purchase while prices were falling.

What they did not choose

The same $200,000 purchase in San Jose later held $728,000 of equity (264%). Seattle: $642,000. Phoenix: $470,000. Atlanta: $362,000. A Wharton study found that borrowers who simply stayed in their homes through the trough accumulated about $83,000 more in capital gains than those who did not. Staying was a decision. The size of the rebound was not.

Figures

  • National home prices fell about 30% from the 2006 peak to the 2009 trough (Federal Reserve).
  • San Jose: $200,000 home → $728,000 equity by 2025 (264%, GOBankingRates / Realtor.com).
  • Seattle: $642,000 equity (212%). Phoenix: $470,000 (135%). Atlanta: $362,000 (81%).
  • Wharton: assisted borrowers who kept their homes accumulated about $83,000 more in capital gains (Ferreira et al.).

Sources