# Buying a house in 2009 — Paths

> National home prices fell about 30% from the 2006 peak to the 2009 trough. A $200,000 home bought near the bottom later held $362,000 to $728,000 of equity. The range is almost entirely which city the buyer was in.

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Event luck 2008–2025 Timing

# Buying a house in 2009

The same $200,000 purchase, different cities, $362,000 to $728,000 of later equity.

**$362k–$728k** later equity on the same $200,000 purchase, by city

## What they did

A buyer had a deposit, qualifying income, and the willingness to purchase while prices were falling.

## What they did not choose

The same $200,000 purchase in San Jose later held $728,000 of equity (264%). Seattle: $642,000. Phoenix: $470,000. Atlanta: $362,000. A Wharton study found that borrowers who simply stayed in their homes through the trough accumulated about $83,000 more in capital gains than those who did not. Staying was a decision. The size of the rebound was not.

## Figures

- National home prices fell about 30% from the 2006 peak to the 2009 trough (Federal Reserve).

- San Jose: $200,000 home → $728,000 equity by 2025 (264%, GOBankingRates / Realtor.com).

- Seattle: $642,000 equity (212%). Phoenix: $470,000 (135%). Atlanta: $362,000 (81%).

- Wharton: assisted borrowers who kept their homes accumulated about $83,000 more in capital gains (Ferreira et al.).

## Limit

Buying at the bottom requires capital and nerve. The multiplier is geographic. The same decision in a slower city returns a fraction of San Jose. This is not a method for timing housing.

## Sources

- [GOBankingRates — A $200,000 home bought during the 2008 crash](https://www.gobankingrates.com/investing/real-estate/if-you-bought-200k-home-during-2008-crash-heres-how-much-equity-youd-have-now/)

- [Wharton — How homeownership helps build wealth (Ferreira)](https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/how-homeownership-helps-build-wealth/)

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